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World Cup Power Rankings After Aug. 29 to Sept. 5 Qualifiers

Sam Tighe@@stighefootballX.com LogoWorld Football Tactics Lead WriterSeptember 6, 2017

Colombia's Radamel Falcao (L) celebrates with teammate James Rodriguez after scoring against Brazil during their 2018 World Cup football qualifier match, in Barranquilla, Colombia, on September 5, 2017. / AFP PHOTO / Luis ACOSTA        (Photo credit should read LUIS ACOSTA/AFP/Getty Images)
LUIS ACOSTA/Getty Images

It's about that time in the FIFA World Cup qualifying process where things genuinely start to get interesting. It made the whole international break just a tiny bit more bearable; the abrupt divorce from renewed domestic action a little less savage.

Eight teams have now booked their places at Russia 2018, and in a month or so, another slew of them will do the same. Almost every game at this stage has something riding on it; every kick of the ball carries serious ramifications and consequences.

FIFA World Cup 🏆 @FIFAWorldCup

September #WCQ: done ✅ #WorldCup line-up, so far: 🇷🇺Russia 🇧🇷Brazil 🇮🇷Iran 🇯🇵Japan 🇲🇽Mexico 🇧🇪Belgium 🇰🇷Korea Republic 🇸🇦Saudi Arabia 👌🏻🏆

We've updated our World Cup power rankings after the latest round of fixtures. It's essentially a ranking of who is most likely to win the World Cup and thus takes into account every team's strength, scenario and potential route to Russia. 

We haven't restricted the teams included in these rankings by using FIFA's qualifying allocation rules, so you may see more from one continent than can qualify and fewer from others. That's because sixth-placed CONMEBOL side Chile still seem far more likely to win the tournament than, say, already-qualified South Korea, and the point of the exercise is to work who is on course for glory.


32. South Korea (New!)

South Korea officially booked their place in Russia during this international window, but optimism and hopes for success remain far from high. If you're 32nd on this list, you're not threatening a World Cup win.

Korean Footballers @KoreaFootAbroad

In echoes of 2014, Korea appears to have limped into World Cup. Unless Iran scores on themselves in final seconds.

        

31. Tunisia (New!)

The African qualifying section is a gruelling, difficult procedure, and only the sturdiest, most consistent sides come out of it with a spot at the finals. Unless things go horribly wrong next month, Tunisia look set to be one of the five that make it.


30. Iran (+1)

In the AFC's final qualifying round, Iran made it nine straight competitive games without conceding a goal...then they shipped two in the last match against Syria.

They don't care; their progression to Russia 2018 is already sealed.

           

Iran head coach Carlos Queiroz
Iran head coach Carlos QueirozATTA KENARE/Getty Images

        

29. Peru (New!)

Making a late run at qualification is Peru, who won both their games this month and have moved into fourth place in the CONMEBOL table. If they make it and Chile don't...well, it'll be one of the biggest upsets in any qualifying region.

                 

28. USA (-1)

B/R Football @brfootball

Honduras 1-0 USA 😳 https://t.co/u9KeZgW52S

It's been a disastrous mini-campaign for the U.S., losing to Costa Rica on home soil and then only scraping a draw in Honduras. They looked a shadow of the side we saw in the early Bruce Arena days and at the Gold Cup. 

Still, all is not lost, and there remains a clear route to Russia. They're going to need at least four, possibly six, points from their last two games, though.

                   

27. Wales (New!)

Serbia's victory over Republic of Ireland on Tuesday truly upset the order in Group D. Not only did it lift the former clear at the top, but it also sent the latter tumbling out of the top two altogether.

Ben Woodburn
Ben WoodburnMichael Steele/Getty Images

Wales were only too happy to take their place, moving into second after achieving a late victory in Moldova, with Liverpool youngster Ben Woodburn the star of the show once again.

         

26. Bosnia and Herzegovina (New!)

Bosnia and Herzegovina replace Greece in our rankings in near-like-for-like fashion after they leapfrogged them in Group H on Tuesday. They won their own game against Gibraltar 4-0 and took advantage of the Greeks' loss to Belgium.

Bosnia have Belgium next, though...


25. Senegal (-4)

As mentioned, the African qualifying section is incredibly tough, but you'd expect Senegal to be in a stronger position regardless.

They're the best side in Group D on paper and have the match-winners that fellow group-mates lack, but they will likely need two wins from their last two games to have a chance at reaching Russia.

       

24. Japan (+1)

Japan qualified for the World Cup with an AFC third-round game to spare, and they relaxed a little for the final contest with Saudi Arabia. They look the clear strongest side in their region, but as ever, it's difficult to know how they measure up with the rest of the world.

Guess that's what the tournament in Russia is for.

                    

23. Iceland (+5)

Somehow, despite losing their first game to Finland, Iceland have come out of this international break looking good. That's what a pivotal 2-0 victory over Ukraine will do for you, and they're now level on points with Croatia in Group I.

Nick Ames @NickAmes82

Iceland's position in a tough WCQ group has gone unheralded, but superb consistency & continuity post-Lagerback – no flash in the pan.

          

22. Egypt (+2)

It's as you were in CAF's Group E. Egypt and Uganda met each other twice in the space of five days, beat each other 1-0 on home soil and remained in the same positions in the table.

         

21. Sweden (-3)

Sweden have fluctuated between "they could win Group A, topping France" to "are they even going to make the play-offs?" during this rigorous campaign.

A 3-2 loss to Bulgaria has dropped them in it, as they're now unlikely to catch the French and have the Dutchwho they play in Amsterdam next monthbreathing down their necks.


20. Costa Rica (+3)

Costa Rica enjoyed a brilliant international break as they moved to within touching distance of Russia 2018. A win over the U.S. and a draw with Mexicowhich was oh-so-close to being much more—has essentially solidified second spot in the Hexagonal stage table.

CRC Futbol🇨🇷 @crcfutbol

4 points against the so-called "Giants" of CONCACAF is a good return for Costa Rica. A post away from being 6. #VamosTicos #LaSele

          

19. Nigeria (+1)

If you're looking for the definition of a "statement win," try Nigeria's first result of this international run: a ruthless 4-0 demolition of African champions Cameroon.

They followed that up with a slightly drabber 1-1 draw against the same team, but the important point is they're three clear in their group and look Russia-bound.

         

18. Serbia (+8)

Results don't get much more important, or more pivotal, than Serbia's gritty 1-0 victory over Republic of Ireland in Dublin on Tuesday. It sends them well clear at the top of Group D and guarantees them a top-two finish.

They're rewarded with the biggest boost in the rankings of any side.

Serbia's defender Aleksandar Kolarov and Serbia's defender Branislav Ivanovic (R) embrace as Republic of Ireland's defender Cyrus Christie reacts to Ireland's defeat at the final whistle in the World Cup 2018 qualification football match between Republic
PAUL FAITH/Getty Images

        

17. Russia (+2)

A Russia national side soon to host a FIFA World Cup, who have many, many problems to sort out and less than a year to do it in, weren't even able to secure a fixture with anyone for this international break.

They ended up sending an incredibly experimental side out against domestic outfit Dinamo Moscow. It literally doesn't even count as a proper international fixture, but they won, and it's enough to move them up as Ecuador have dropped out completely and Sweden slipped up.

        

16. Mexico (Stay)

The Hexagonal CONCACAF stage looks a mess right now, but one team unconcerned with it is Mexico. Their passage to the World Cup has already been secured, and this represents one of the best qualifying campaigns they've had in a long, long time.


15. Switzerland (Stay)

Two routine victories for Switzerland kept them top of their group, but the way is far from clear.

Their goal differencealthough a commendable plus-15is still miles off Portugal's plus-24, and they sit just three points ahead of their rivals. It's all going to come down to the final matchday, when the two face each other, and if the Swiss can't at least manage a draw, it's a play-off for them.

This might seem a low ranking for a group leader, but you'll be hard-pressed to find a neutral willing to back Switzerland to win this group even with a lead.

        

14. Poland (-1)

Poland are without a doubt one of the most intriguing, precarious setups left in this qualifying process in UEFA's Group E. 

They looked to be romping toward automatic qualification up until this past weekend, when out of nowhere they were crushed 4-0 by Denmark. They lead the Danes 19 to 16 with two games left, and Montenegro have 16 points, too.

Montenegro's final two games? Denmark at home; then Poland away.

Robert Lewandowski
Robert LewandowskiAndrew Halseid-Budd/Getty Images

    

13. Croatia (+1)

Croatia's loss to Turkey on Tuesday throws Group I wide-open.

Luka Modric and Co. are still top of the pile on goal difference and can move to within touching distance of the finals if they win their next match against Finland, but this should serve as a warning shot. Turkey, Iceland and Ukraineall sat just below themare all capable outfits.

That said, they leapfrog Poland purely because they didn't lose a game 4-0 during this international break.

         

12. England (Stay)

England took far longer than expected to find a way past Malta and started far slower than desired against Slovakia. The important thing is they won both games, though, and are essentially a point away from automatic qualification for the World Cup.

B/R Football @brfootball

The Future of England’s attack? ⚡ https://t.co/mejatvm1lV

The Slovakia win was the genuinely hard-fought one, with Marcus Rashford taking centre stage for reasons both right and wrong. A slightly naive dribble lost England the ball on the edge of their own box and led to Stanislav Lobotka's shock opener, but the teenager buckled down and scored the winner in the second half with a fine finish.

        

11. Chile (-4)

Chile emerge from this international break with two losses to their name and without a single goal scored. Losing 1-0 to Bolivia in La Paz is forgivableit's an incredibly hard place to play footballbut the previous result, a 3-0 home loss to Paraguay, is not.

David Cartlidge @davidjaca

The state of Chile under the characterless Pizzi. Tactics amounted to punting long balls for Alexis to chase. Vidal just disinterested.

This puts manager Juan Antonio Pizzi under severe pressure; this is the last World Cup a number of this Chilean golden generation will be eligible for, and they're currently outside the qualifying places.


10. Belgium (Stay)

Belgium became the first European nation to seal qualification to the 2018 FIFA World Cup on Sunday thanks to a helter-skelter 2-1 victory over Greece. Romelu Lukaku scored the all-important winnerhis 10th qualifying goal in a remarkable campaign.

Romelu Lukaku
Romelu LukakuLOUISA GOULIAMAKI/Getty Images

But this somewhat papered over the still-evident cracks in Roberto Martinez's reign: They struggle to break down defensive teams and rely on moments of individual quality to bail them out.

At least they have one proper full-back now.

       

9. Italy (-4)

Italy were shown the line against Spain at the weekend, losing 3-0 in Madrid to a far superior side. The Azzurri are a talented and strong team, but it's clear there's an echelon above them, and for now the bouncer won't let them past the velvet rope.

What followed was hardly the perfect rebuttal: A squeaky, ugly 1-0 win over Israel that did the job points-wise but inspired no further faith in Gian Piero Ventura's crop.

      

8. Argentina (+1)

Things still aren't quite right for Argentina, who, alarmingly, have now averaged just one goal per gameover 16 matches!in this qualifying gauntlet. Given they sometimes can't even fit Mauro Icardi or Paulo Dybala into the squad due to the attacking talents at their disposal, that is ridiculous.

Lionel Messi
Lionel MessiJUAN MABROMATA/Getty Images

Two straight draws during this break, one against Uruguay and the other with Venezuela, did them no favours and extends their stay in fifth in the table. That said, you'd back them to either win the play-off or move up from here, and given they have Lionel Messi, they can't not be considered a serious threat for the tournament proper.

         

7. Uruguay (+4)

The award for the best September 2017 international break in the CONMEBOL section goes to Peru, but Uruguay are a close second. Holding Argentina to a 0-0 draw suited them, then a 2-1 win over Paraguayin which Oscar Tabarez broke character and threw in a debutant!lifted them into second place in the table.

Warriors of Uruguay @UruguayanHeroes

PHOTO: The Uruguay squad and staff celebrating the vital win against Paraguay in the dressing room. https://t.co/pT6Es5ZkJC

Admittedly, it's so close in that area that the difference between second (automatic qualification) and fifth (a play-off spot) is marginal, but La Celeste are now in a strong position and can bring it home in October.

         

6. Colombia (Stay)

It was going to take something impressive to halt Brazil's nine-game win streak, and although the Selecao did send out a rotated side against Colombia, the latter still came from behind to grab a point against the clear best side in the region.

Radamel Falcao's re-emergence as a world-class poacher lifts Los Cafeteros back into that upper tier of sides who can genuinely compete to win the World Cup in 2018. It was his goal that levelled matters on Tuesday night.

Colombia's Radamel Falcao (L) celebrates with teammate James Rodriguez after scoring against Brazil during their 2018 World Cup football qualifier match, in Barranquilla, Colombia, on September 5, 2017. / AFP PHOTO / Luis ACOSTA        (Photo credit shoul
LUIS ACOSTA/Getty Images

      

5. Portugal (+1)

If Portugal win all of their remaining qualifiers (with one or two technical boxes ticked in the process), they'll qualify automatically from Group B. That's the nice way of saying it.

Cristiano Ronaldo
Cristiano RonaldoLaszlo Szirtesi/Getty Images

The other way of saying it is that while they continue to rack up victories, so do Switzerlandwho also beat them in the opening round and as a result top this group. It's all going to come down to the final round, where the two meet in Lisbon, Portugal.

Portugal are ranked ahead of Switzerland here because they'll be expected to beat them in October. Even if they don't and face the play-offs, they'll be favoured to get through them and then outperform the Swiss in Russia.

        

4. France (Stay)

Antoine Griezmann
Antoine GriezmannJean Catuffe/Getty Images

France perplexed us all this international break by destroying the Netherlands 4-0 in a wicked display of attacking prowess, then failing to find a way past lowly Luxembourg, drawing 0-0 at home to the minnow nation.

To see an XI packed with the likes of Antoine Griezmann, Thomas Lemar, Kylian Mbappe and Olivier Giroud stymied by a heroic, but modest, effort...well, it gives us all hope for the World Cup, doesn't it?

          

3. Spain (Stay)

Spain took full command of Group G during this international window by beating Italy and opening up a points gap between the two. The fact it was a resounding win of the 3-0 variety only cemented the feeling that the Azzurri had done well to hang on to automatic qualification hopes for so long.

B/R Football @brfootball

🔥 Isco just can’t stop 🔥 https://t.co/NmZFLtVrhN

Isco caught fire during the game, running rings around Daniele De Rossi and Marco Verratti; then he scored against Liechtenstein in the follow-up game during an even more resounding 8-0 victory.

         

2. Germany (Stay)

A so-far flawless Germany were supposed to steamroll their Czech counterparts at the weekend but only managed to squeeze through a tight encounter 2-1. They dominated possession but somehow still gave up a tonne of opportunities; fortunately only one was scored.

Bundesliga English @Bundesliga_EN

Germany games: 8️⃣ Germany goals: 6️⃣ @RBLeipzig_EN's Timo #Werner's goalscoring exploits aren't just limited to the #Bundesliga 🔥 #GERNOR https://t.co/C0ox6laM1z

You'd imagine Joachim Low brought that up in the days between their first and second game, as the next time they took to the pitch, they destroyed Norway 6-0. Timo Werner's emergence as Germany's No. 9 makes them a downright frightful prospect.

        

1. Brazil (Stay)

"Titemania" is, genuinely, a thing in Brazil. It stems from the population's near-universal appreciation of current manager Tite, who has made the Selecao into a footballing force once again.

Brazil's Willian (C) celebrates after scoring against Colombia during their 2018 World Cup football qualifier match, in Barranquilla, Colombia, on September 5, 2017. / AFP PHOTO / Raul ARBOLEDA        (Photo credit should read RAUL ARBOLEDA/AFP/Getty Imag
RAUL ARBOLEDA/Getty Images

While the race to qualify from the CONMEBOL section has become an utter mess from second down to eighth, with seriously good sides facing the daunting prospect of not making it to Russia, Brazil are 10 points clear and laughing.

They were able to rest players against Colombia, having secured such an impressive position already, with Gabriel Jesus one of several to drop leisurely to the bench.

         

All statistics via FIFA.com