Oscar 2018 predictions in every category

Sally Hawkins in "The Shape of Water," which leads the Oscar race with 13 nominations. (Kerry Hayes | Photo provided to MLive.com by Twentieth Century Fox)

By John Serba | jserba@mlive.com

The joke begins now, but the punchline won’t hit until March 4: Here are my Oscar picks!

My reputation as a lousy prognosticator of award winners never stops me from soldiering forward with reckless abandon, guessing loudly and wildly like the most flimflammed, intelligence-deficient contestant on “Family Feud.” Truth is, I feel obligated to tackle the Oscars ever year, considering my intense love of film, which feeds my ironic egotistical desire to spread terrible awards prognoses via these barely controlled word-sneezes, which hopefully aren’t contagious.

I can only hope you’re amused by the following predictions, which seem even more haphazard than usual, considering how the wide-open race for best picture is making all this seem so profoundly difficult. Here goes nothing, I guess.

Oh, and don't forget – Michigan residents, click here to enter MLive.com's Pick of the Flicks Oscar contest, for a chance to win 150 movies passes to Celebration Cinema movie theaters.

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Best picture

My pick: "Lady Bird"

I’ll start with the most difficult category. Four, maybe five, of the nominees are strong candidates. “Three Billboards” is too divisive. “Dunkirk” is riveting, and a work of genius, but not as politically vital in its subject matter as other leading candidates. “Get Out” is so essentially “now,” it feels like the most important film on the list (and is possibly the most entertaining). Nearly everyone who sees “Lady Bird” loves it – and then they watch it again and love it even more. “The Shape of Water,” despite being about a human woman physically commingling with a literal fish-man, feels like the conservative choice. Oscar voters have a thoroughly conservative history, but I also feel like that’s changing. It seems as if the past two winners, “Moonlight” and “Spotlight,” point to a new trend of awarding the work making the strongest statement about life and how it’s reflected in film, right here and right now. And in 2018, that film is either “Lady Bird” or “Get Out.” So I flipped a coin.

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Director

My pick: Guillermo del Toro, "The Shape of Water"

With his artful, thoroughly delightful fantasy, Del Toro strikes a nice balance between the highly technical work of Christopher Nolan (“Dunkirk”) and the more intuitive direction of Greta Gerwig (“Lady Bird”). Jordan Peele skillfully juggled a lot of tones – horror, satire, comedy – with “Get Out,” which is another skill entirely. This is a tough, tough category to predict.

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Actress

My pick: Frances McDormand, "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri"

As an angry, damaged, angry, vengeful, angry, grieving mother – who’s also very, very angry – McDormand is a powerhouse. The movie is nothing without her righteous energy. She’s hoovered up all the awards to this point, so nothing’s going to stop her. It would be McDormand’s second Oscar; the first was for “Fargo,” a performance so great, her “Three Billboards” campaign still coasts on the fumes of its goodwill.

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Actor

My pick: Gary Oldman, "Darkest Hour"

This is a begrudging pick. It’s a big, crazy, showy performance from a Hollywood stalwart. It’s about as subtle as a typhoon in your bathtub. The closest contender, Timothee Chalamet (“Call Me by Your Name”), put forth such a naturalist and lived-in performance, it makes Oldman’s look even more garish in comparison. Oldman has already lined his shelf this awards season, and Academy members will likely continue the trend, recognizing the most obvious Oscar-baity role of his long, admirable career. And here’s where I mention Daniel Kaluuya (“Get Out”), the true best actor in this race, who will have to settle for the thrill of being nominated. Maybe he should’ve worn blubbery silicon jowls, too.

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Supporting actress

My pick: Allison Janney, "I, Tonya"

Another foregone conclusion. Janney has won everything up to now, and that’s not likely to change. Personally, I’d vote for Laurie Metcalf, who’s the unsung dramatic catalyst in “Lady Bird.” But Janney is a longtime character actress beloved by anyone with a pulse, and her turn as the World’s Worst Mom in “I, Tonya” is enjoyably vicious, so she’s definitely deserving.

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Supporting actor

My pick: Sam Rockwell, "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri"

Everything I said about Allison Janney also applies here: foregone conclusion, won everything already, not gonna change, I’d probably vote for someone else (Willem Dafoe in “The Florida Project”), longtime character guy who everyone loves, and his turn as a comically inept racist cop in “Three Billboards” is ridiculous and fun, so he’s deserving.

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Animated film

My pick: "Coco"

If “The Boss Baby” wins, I fully expect a black hole to spontaneously open right there on the Oscar stage and devour reality whole.

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Original screenplay

My pick: "Get Out"

How do you compare a slashingly satirical provocation (“Get Out”) to a slashingly obvious provocation (“Three Billboards”) to a coming-of-age character story (“Lady Bird”) to a smart rom-com (“The Big Sick”) to a rich fantasy (“The Shape of Water”)? You don’t. So here’s a compelling reason why awards campaigns/ceremonies suck. The barbed dialogue of “Three Billboards” may earn it a win here, but my guess is, this is the best chance “Get Out” has of winning any Oscar hardware. It’d be upsetting if it doesn’t get some recognition.

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Adapted screenplay

My pick: "Call Me by Your Name"

This screenplay could consist solely of Michael Stuhlbarg’s monologue and still win. It’s pretty much “Call Me by Your Name”’s Oscar to lose.

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Cinematography

My pick: Roger Deakins, "Blade Runner 2049"

Deakins, one of the greatest DPs of the last 40 years has 14 nominations, but no wins yet. It’s his year, finally, and his work on the long-awaited sci-fi sequel is breathtaking. Dan Laustsen (“The Shape of Water”) has a shot, maybe. And Rachel Morrison (“Mudbound”), the first-ever female nominee in this category, would be a righteous upset, but it’s not likely.

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Costume design

My pick: "Phantom Thread"

When all else fails, pick the period piece. When all the nominees are period pieces, pick the one that’s about an actual fashion designer.

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Sound editing

My pick: "Baby Driver"

Reminder, sound editing is the art of creating sounds to match the action on the screen, and sound mixing refers to the overall “symphony” of music, sound effects, dialogue, etc. “Baby Driver” synced music and action with stunning precision.

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Sound mixing

My pick: "Dunkirk"

The roar of the planes was a character in itself.

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Editing

My pick: "Dunkirk"

Editing is crucial to this ingeniously structured story. Same could be said for “Baby Driver,” which is made with just as much technical precision. But “Dunkirk” has more supporters.

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Visual effects

My pick: "War for the Planet of the Apes"

You’d swear the apes are real, not just products of motion-capture performances and CGI. How the two previous “Apes” movies didn’t win in this category is beyond me. It better not happen a third time – everyone who saw this film is still lost in that orangutan’s eyes EVEN THOUGH THEY DON’T PHYSICALLY EXIST.

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Makeup and hairstyling

My pick: "Darkest Hour"

If you didn’t know better, you might think Gary Oldman wasn’t playing a man 10 years older, 50 lbs. heavier and many shades balder than he really is. Prosthetic jowls have never been this convincingly realistic.

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Original song

My pick: "The Mystery of Love," Sufjan Stevens, "Call Me by Your Name"

All you cornballs out there will rejoice when “This is Me” from “The Greatest Showman” most likely wins. Why didn’t I pick it, then? I sacrifice this pick in the name of sanity.

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Original score

My pick: Jonny Greenwood, "Phantom Thread"

That Guy From Radiohead did some wonderful work scoring “Phantom Thread.” I’m guessing there’ll be some vote-splitting among perennial nominees Alexandre Desplat (“The Shape of Water”), Hans Zimmer (“Dunkirk”) and John Williams (who penned his most evocative score in decades for “Star Wars: The Last Jedi”), opening the door for Greenwood. All their efforts were extraordinary this year.

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Animated short film

My pick: "LOU"

When in doubt, pick Pixar.

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Live action short

My pick: "Watu Wote: All of us"

Few of us have seen the short films, and even then, predicting how voting will go for them is a crapshoot. Not to be glib or cynical, but I always pick the film with the most potential for being socio-politically relevant, or inspiring, or both.

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Documentary short

My pick: "Edith and Eddie"

See my analysis of the previous short film category.

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Documentary feature

My pick: "Faces Places"

Chosen simply because it’s the highest-profile nominee, in a year when docs of greater acclaim aren’t nominated.

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Foreign language film

My pick: "A Fantastic Woman"

Oddly, one of the highest-profile potential category candidates, “In the Fade,” wasn’t nominated, despite having won the Golden Globe. “A Fantastic Woman” seems to have some traction in the race, per my highly unscientific assessment.

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Production design

My pick: "The Shape of Water"

By my eye, it’s a race between this and “Blade Runner 2049.” “The Shape of Water” is shaping up to have a heap of nominations (13), but few wins. I think it’ll take this one.

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